When it comes to debate about the impacts of climate change I’ve heard the expression ‘the science is settled’ many, many times. For me that’s a nonsense. The whole thing about science is it’s never settled. Scientists constantly poke and probe. Einstein’s theory of relativity is regularly being questioned, with scientists testing its constructs. That’s what science is supposed to do. They compare results in the real world with the predictions the theory proposes. If the results don’t fit the theory – the theory is probably wrong.
But all too frequently scientists go along with the current thinking, looking for ways to prove the current consensus instead of examining the facts.
Let’s consider one rather large example.
UNESCO has been threatening to place the Great Barrier Reef on the endangered list for many years. That would impact the many tour operators that run successful businesses taking visitors out to enjoy the reef. The authorities here have bent over backwards to satisfy the conditions imposed on them. For instance, there’s real fear about the impact of nutrients washing into the ocean from farmland so farmers must meet stringent conditions to prevent run-off.
The proliferation of crown of thorns starfish, which eat coral, was trumpeted as far back as the 1980s. Back then we were warned that the reef was in imminent danger. But as time went by the scientists confirmed that the crown of thorns starfish is a native species and infestations are just a part of the natural cycle.
Then there’s climate change and a warming ocean, which leads to coral bleaching. We endured a couple of years of El Nino conditions, which means the water is warmer on our side of the Pacific. A few cyclones crossing the coast further stressed the marine systems. And indeed there were numerous cases of coral bleaching. The future for the Great Barrier Reef (we were told) looked dire.
So, people must have been pleasantly surprised to be told that the resilient Great Barrier Reef is fighting back. (A pay wall – sorry)
“It’s been a good week for the Great Barrier Reef. Results of the latest coral survey confirm a four-decade high in coral cover has been maintained and UNESCO says it will keep Australia’s precious World Heritage icon off its in-danger list. The final survey results from the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) show hard coral cover has held steady at the record-breaking levels of the past two years across the entire reef system.”
But UNESCO is still insisting on conditions, such as the banning of all gill-net fishing and the expenditure of billions of dollars to monitor and prevent run-off from agriculture. I’m not sure how they’re going to stop cyclones crossing the coast.
Those billions of dollars have become something of a problem. There’s money to be made investigating the reef, a bonanza in research grants. There have been a number of instances where so-called research has turned out to be nonsense.
In May 2021, the American publication Science Magazine made claims about scientific fraud involving 22 papers linked to James Cook University’s Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies. [source] The university sacked long-time academic Professor Peter Ridd after he was critical of the accuracy of studies by the JCU marine studies centre.
Professor Ridd is still working on the Great Barrier Reef and he didn’t find AIMS’s survey results at all surprising. He’s quoted in the article.
‘For Peter Ridd, the research results confirm the adaptive ability of nature. “These papers show that the corals have an almost unique ability to adapt to changing conditions by changing the symbiont zooxanthellae. It is the reason that, even if there is to be a large rise in temperature due to CO2, corals are one of the best able to adapt and survive – all they need to do is swap the symbionts,” he says. “This is something corals often do after bleaching. Thus bleaching is a dynamic response mechanism to deal with changing conditions.”’
And he added a comment on the article: “Two other interesting facts.
(1) The coral species that have exploded in number over the last few years, the acropora (plate and staghorn corals), are the types MOST susceptible to hot water bleaching. We had multiple bleaching events in the last few years and now have record amounts of the stuff! This proves that the bleaching events have had minimal impact on the reef and that the institutions exaggerated the coral loss again and again. Why would they do that?
(2) The Australian government has capitulated on many issues to “save” the GBR from a UNESCO endangered listing. The most egregious and ridiculous is to restrict fishing in the Gulf of Carpentaria to help “save the Reef”. These restrictions are over 700km from the GBR, on the wrong side of Cape York Peninsula. There is no evidence whatsoever that this human sacrifice of fishermen on the alter [sic] of green activism will affect the reef one way or the other. It is totally irrelevant to the reef – but not the fishermen.
The GBR is now an ideal excuse for governments to control all agriculture east of the Great Dividing Range adjacent to the reef (draconian legislation was introduced a couple of years ago) and to phase out, or greatly restrict, commercial and recreational fishing.
And all for no reason – the reef now has record amounts of coral – and has had for the last three years. Thanks to Graham Lloyd [author of the article I quoted] and The Australian for showing both sides of the debate about the Reef.’
If you don’t know a lot about coral, this fact sheet is a useful summary.
This is not to say that there is no coral bleaching. I read an article in Australian Geographic (a beautiful disaster) which gives a different picture. But the reef is 2,300km long and there’s a lot of diversity along that length. Bleaching isn’t happening everywhere.
And the lesson is don’t believe everything the media feeds us, especially when discussing something as complex as a reef system. Or a climate. And here are a few images I sourced from Pexels (a free photo site) showing life on the reef.
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